You Don’t ‘Have’ Agency—You Develop It: Why Free Will is an Illusion, but Action Still Matters

Introduction: The Evolution of Forged Will

Forged Will is about facing reality as it is, not as we wish it to be. It rejects comforting illusions in favor of probabilistic pragmatism, meaning we choose the best model of reality based on evidence.

This post marks an evolution in how Forged Will understands agency, free will, and action. Previously, I used the term “conditional agency” to emphasize that our ability to act is shaped by constraints. But the term is redundant—all agency is conditional. To speak of agency correctly is to recognize that it is developed, not freely willed.

So, this post will do three things:

1. Clarify that free will is an illusion, rejected on probabilistic pragmatism grounds.

2. Redefine agency—not as an intrinsic property, but as a skill that emerges from experience, environment, and biology.

3. Lay out the practical implications for self-improvement, responsibility, and justice.

This shift is rooted in humility (acknowledging reality), compassion (understanding causality), hope (agency can grow), and gratitude (for the conditions that allow us to act).

1. Free Will is an Illusion

We are taught that we make choices freely, separate from outside influences. But the truth is, our choices are always shaped by prior causes—our genetics, experiences, environment, and brain processes. Free will, as most people imagine it, does not exist.

Philosophers describe free will in many ways. Some say it’s total freedom from causes; others say it’s choosing within limits. But none have shown proof for these ideas. We’re not rejecting one version—we’re rejecting all claims that humans make choices outside cause-and-effect, because there’s no proof. The people making these claims haven’t met their burden of proof.

The Science Against Free Will

🔹 Neuroscience: Studies show that your brain makes decisions before you are aware of them. What feels like conscious choice is actually your brain reporting a decision it has already made.

• Libet (1983): Brain activity predicting a decision happens before the individual is aware of making a choice.

• Soon et al. (2008): fMRI scans can predict a participant’s decision seconds before they consciously “choose.”

🔹 Physics: The universe follows laws—either deterministic (one event leads to another) or random (like quantum mechanics). Neither allows for a self-caused choice.

• Sean Carroll (2016): There is no room for free will in a universe governed by physical laws.

🔹 Psychology: Human behavior is predictable. Advertisers, economists, and psychologists can accurately model behavior because we act based on patterns, not pure free will.

• Daniel Kahneman (2011): Human decisions follow predictable biases and heuristics.

• Robert Sapolsky (2023): Free will does not survive scrutiny at any level—biology, neurology, or behavior.

Conclusion: Free will has no evidence supporting it and must be rejected. But this doesn’t mean we are powerless—it means we need a better model of agency.

2. Agency is Real, But It’s Developed—Not Freely Willed

If free will is false, where does that leave us? Are we just robots running on pre-set programs? No. Humans do make choices—but only within the limits of what we can perceive and act on. This is agency, and it is something that develops, not something we “have.”

Agency is a Skill, Not a Trait

• Most people assume agency is something inside them, like a personal power.

• But agency is built over time, like a skill.

• Some people have more agency than others, not because they are stronger-willed, but because their conditions allowed them to develop it.

💡 Example: A child raised in a safe, supportive home with access to education develops more options for action than a child raised in poverty and neglect. Their agency levels are different from the start—not because of willpower, but because of what was available to them.

Agency is About Perceiving and Acting on Affordances

• Affordances are opportunities for action available in a given environment.

• The more affordances you can perceive and act upon, the more agency you have.

💡 Analogy: Agency is like a maze—some people start in open space, while others are trapped in dead ends. The goal isn’t to “push harder” but to find or create a path forward.

3. The Myth of the Individual vs. System Divide

A big reason people struggle to understand agency is that they assume the individual and the system are separate. This is a mistake.

The Individual is Not Separate from the System

• People act based on the conditions that shaped them—there is no “self” apart from those conditions.

• If someone makes bad choices, we shouldn’t ask “Why did they do that?” We should ask “What conditions led to this outcome?”

💡 Key Insight: The person is not separate from the system—they are the system in motion.

4. When Meaning Gets in the Way: How Hidden Assumptions Block Understanding Agency

Even when people accept that free will is false, they struggle with the implications. Here are three big hidden assumptions:

1. “I Am Separate from the System”

• But no one creates themselves—we are built by experience and surroundings.

2. “People Get What They Deserve”

• But if all choices are determined, people don’t “deserve” success or failure—they simply experience the results of prior causes.

3. “Change Comes from Willpower”

• But agency is not willed into existence—it develops.

5. What This Means for You

🔹 Self-improvement is about changing constraints, not forcing willpower.

🔹 Responsibility is about expanding agency, not blaming people.

🔹 Justice should focus on preventing harm, not punishing failure.

6. The Forged Will Philosophy Evolves

With this post, Forged Will evolves to reflect these insights.

• Free will is fully and explicitly rejected.

• Agency is no longer called “conditional agency”—it is just agency, correctly understood.

• Self-improvement and social change are the same process.

This update reflects humility (admitting flawed ideas), compassion (understanding causality), hope (knowing agency can grow), and gratitude (for the conditions that allow growth).

Sources & Further Reading

1. Libet, B. (1983). “Time of conscious intention to act in relation to onset of cerebral activity.” Brain 106(3), 623-642.

2. Soon, C. S. et al. (2008). “Unconscious determinants of free decisions in the human brain.” Nature Neuroscience 11(5), 543-545.

3. Carroll, S. (2016). The Big Picture. Dutton.

4. Hossenfelder, S. (2021). Existential Physics. Viking.

5. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

6. Sapolsky, R. (2017). Behave. Penguin Press.

7. Sapolsky, R. (2023). Determined. Penguin Press.

8. Harris, S. (2012). Free Will. Free Press.

Final Call to Action

Now that you know agency is developed, how will you shape the conditions for your growth? Let’s continue to evolve—together.